Description
Acknowledgments ix About the Author xi Preface xiii Chapter 1 An Unconventional Trade Feud 1 1.1 Thanos and Trump 1 1.2 What Causes the Trade War? 4 1.3 The Novelty of This Trade War 18 1.4 Economic Impacts and Consequences 26 1.5 Trade War and Deglobalization 33 Annex A: China’s Belt and Road Initiative 38 Annex B: Official Statements from the US and China 39 Annex C: Major Timeline of the Trade War 42 Chapter 2 Trade Imbalances and the Greenback 46 2.1 The Missing Link between Trade and Currency 46 2.2 Stubbornly Persistent US Trade Deficits 48 2.3 Is the Exchange Rate to Blame? 56 2.4 Exorbitant Privilege of the Dollar 63 2.5 Dollar Recycling and the Global Saving Glut 70 Chapter 3 Deglobalization Prompts De-Dollarization 78 3.1 Anti-Multilateralism and Anti-Sovereign Movement 78 3.2 The Globalization Cycle 81 3.3 Currency Globalization 89 3.4 Financial Deglobalization 98 3.5 End of Cycle: De-Dollarization 105 Chapter 4 China-US Financial Decoupling 111 4.1 Trade War and the Yuan 111 4.2 The Yuan in the Monetary Policy Context 115 4.3 Globalizing the RMB in the Deglobalizing World 129 4.4 Reserve Diversification 145 Chapter 5 A Race on the Digital Turf 156 5.1 Reform and Technology Independence 156 5.2 China’s Structural Challenges 159 5.3 China’s Digital Economy 168 5.4 The Tech Rush and the Little Chips 186 Chapter 6 Cryptocurrency and the People’s Money 194 6.1 Deglobalization in the Digital Time 194 6.2 Bitcoin and Distributed Ledgers 197 6.3 Can Cryptocurrency Replace Money? 215 6.4 Regulatory Responses 220 6.5 Implication on Monetary Policy 223 Chapter 7 Foreign Reserves Go Digital 227 7.1 From Zhou to Carney 227 7.2 Reserve Currency Based on Liquidity 229 7.3 The Potential Role of Cryptocurrency in Global Reserving 238 7.4 Implication of the Libra Project 244 Chapter 8 The Endgame 249 8.1 The Trade War as the Perfect Shock 249 8.2 Libra or RMB, Which is the Designated One? 251 8.3 What Can China Do? 253 Bibliography 257 Index 269
