Description
This book is about managing the task of forecasting profit. It builds a case for using multiple methods, providing examples of each method, and suggesting practical techniques to use in dealing with the issues and problems of accuracy in profit forecasts. All the elements that infringe on profits (costs, sales, budgeting, investment, and loan default) are examined within this framework. In addition to synthesizing the research, Professor Metcalfe has applied his own research work on forecast modeling and judgmental methods. The final result is a practical reference book for making more accurate profit forecasts. Preface. 1. Reporting a Forecast. 2. Types of Evidence. 3. An Historical Classification. 4. Group Forecasts. 5. Question Instruments. 6. Interviews. 7. Extrapolation. 8. Causal Models. 9. Bootstrapping and Expert Systems. 10. Deterministic Models. 11. Eclectic Methods. 12. Bankruptcy: a Review. 13. Forecasting Profit: a Review. 14. Disclosure. 15. Evaluating a Forecast. Appendix 1: Book Review. References. Index.
